What You Should Know About Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

What You Should Know About Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Aug 22nd, and the big takeaway is this: he signaled that a rate cut is very likely at the Fed’s next meeting on September 17th.

Here are the highlights:

• Jobs Market: Powell pointed out that the labor market is showing signs of slowing. Earlier job reports were revised downward, which suggests hiring hasn’t been as strong as first thought. If that trend continues, we could see more layoffs and a higher unemployment rate.
  

• Inflation: He addressed price increases from tariffs, explaining they are likely temporary and spread out over time as policies shift.
  

• Economic Growth: Powell noted that the economy overall is growing more slowly than before.
  

What this means:
Powell made it clear that with the economy cooling and risks rising, it makes sense to adjust policy. The market took that as a strong signal for a quarter-point rate cut in September, with traders betting about a 90% chance it happens.

What to watch for next:

• The September 5th jobs report is a big one. If the data is weak, it will reinforce the case for a cut. A surprisingly strong jobs report, however, could cause the Fed to rethink.
  

• On September 9th, another report will update job growth figures from last year. Many expect downward revisions, which would add to the picture of a softer labor market.
  

Bottom line for real estate:
If rates come down in September, it could be good news for buyers and sellers. Lower borrowing costs often help affordability and keep the housing market moving.